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Will the RTX 20 series be obsolete by 2020

GrimVeilRule
  • 8 months ago

So I found this youtuber called Moore's Law Is Dead. anyway he was talking about how game consoles will have AMD ray tracing and how RTX cards can't do AMD's ray tracing so when game developers start adding ray tracing for the consoles The RTX line will lose it's main selling point.

Video link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztcduv5r9bg

So anyone have any thoughts about this? I want to see what Nvidia will do. Do you think the RTX cards are still worth it without ray tracing?

Comments

  • 8 months ago
  • 2 points

Apply discrimination to content you find out there. I have read all kinds of things regarding the new consoles. The latest is 8K gaming at 60fps even with Ray Tracing enabled. Another cited the CEO of Sony suggesting 4K gaming at 120fps. It is all BS. Even accounting for Sony and Microsoft taking massive hardware losses, there is no chance that such technology will be on a console for $500. The random musings citing anyonymous sources are in reality two or three generations away. Not next gen.

While Ray Tracing is a real technology and area of R&D, it will be a feature that can be applied by developers for the new consoles. It does not mean AAA titles will be sporting fully ray traced scenes at 4K Ultra running at the smooth 60fps or 120fps being touted [if there were such scenes I would bet on FMV versus real time rendering]. Rather, like today, some scenes will have some Ray Tracing in them. Of course, for publicity sake, Sony and Microsoft are going to sell this to the masses. Like advertizing that milk will make your bones strong or Slimfast will give you lean muscle mass (ignoring that you actually have to exercise).

  • 8 months ago
  • 1 point

I'll try to be the optimistic one and say I think we might get "fully ray traced scenes at 4K Ultra running at the smooth 60fps or 120fps" so here is my argument ( I can't remember were I heard this) it cost Nvidia only about $230 to make the 2080 Ti so if we look a AMD the rx 5700 Xt use a small die ( heard from Moore's Law Is Dead) so if Navi scales alright then we could assume that Navi 20 could = or > the 2080 Ti if they sell to the consoles cheap with left over Ryzen( you know like 4 chiplets with only 2 cores working on each) and maybe 10% mark up on the GPU it could do that at $500. And if consoles are push AMD's ray tracing right now we might have fully ray traced scenes at 4K Ultra running at the smooth 60fps or 120fps by the end of next year. depending on how good AMd's Ray tracing works from what I've heard it's more economic then Nvidia's but I don't know and just like to speculate. So what do you think?

  • 8 months ago
  • 1 point

It is not unreasonable to think that next gen consoles are going to draw blood with the best PC's today. I expect the next gen of consoles to be like it was when the Xbox 360 and PS3 came out. Both consoles put a hurting on the best PC's of the day, it took around $5000 in today's money just to reach parity. It took 2 to 3 years for PC's to catch up - at least for the average consumer who did not SLI. So yes, I fully expect the new Xbox and PS4 to have at least Radeon VII equivalent GPU, probably will be a custom GPU with 2080TI level or even slightly more (not much more though). Your 4K numbers are optimisitc, not going to happen. You can double the performance of the 2080TI and still not hit 120fps at 4K for some titles. We are not talking about Fortnite. We are talking games with next gen level of realism and realistic physics/AI. To expect console to do 4K 120fps with fully Ray Traced scenes as well, not a chance, zero in fact. We are years away from that. 4K 60fps and some ray traced scenes. The Xbox One X was the test, the PS5/new Xbox will be the realization. Still though, to answer your original question, yes the GPU's of today are going to be underpowered for the AAA titles that will come out on the new consoles in 2021. That does not mean the games will not run. Rather, the gamers/hobbyists will adopt new hardware (which they do every generation anyway) while those that do not can adjust settings to run everything smoothly.

  • 8 months ago
  • 0 points

Right now the 2080 Ti can't do 4K with Ray Tracing and hold a consistent 60 FPS. Add this to the fact that consoles have always used the CPU and GPU on the same die, which have never been as powerful at having a dedicated CPU and GPU as separate components.

[comment deleted]
  • 8 months ago
  • 1 point

It is not unreasonable to expect NVIDIA will launch their 7nm line-up by mid-late 2020, thus new RTX30xx series to replace RTX20xx now. How their performance will improve, especially ray tracing at 1440/4K is still questionable.
Agree with DrLitch it is unlikely concoles can do 4K/120fps (certainly not 8K) at $500 price point by 2020, 4K/60fps possible.

  • 8 months ago
  • 1 point

Nvidia did a great job with their real time ray tracing marketing, so much so that now the same reviewers who were bashing the lack of support for real time ray tracing are recommending "future proofing" systems with RTX Super over RX 5700 XT (or at least if they aren't outright recommending it, they are still mentioning that it is a factor worth weighing when comparing the cards... and there are still only three AAA titles that actually support it!). That kind of marketing, while impressive, doesn't hold a candle to game consoles and their massive hype train. We're on the express line to 8k 120fps DXR ULTRA baby! CHOO CHOO!

Seriously though, that kind of leap in hardware out of absolutely nowhere, I just don't understand where people pull this out of. It seems to happen with each new generational console launch. Hmm, wonder why? CHOO CHOO!!!

  • 8 months ago
  • 1 point

will the 2080 Ti be out dated in 5 months? hell no

  • 8 months ago
  • 1 point

Is the 1080ti obsolete? Last I heard it was selling close to launch price (if you can find one), and used ones aren't much cheaper.

"Moore's law is dead" (technically not true: Gordon Moore merely stated that the number of the transistors will double every n years. This is still true for flash devices. It is "just" that you lose all performance in GPUs/CPUs/similar devices you'd justify a few billion transistors so we tend to think of Moore's law as something in the past). If the name of the Youtube channel is any indication, GPU improvement will largely rest on architectural/design improvement and can't be simply "muscled through" via throwing more transistors/increasing clockspeed.

Will the RTX series always remain a set of GPUs with 25% of the silicon set aside for raytracing that will be unlikely to ever be effectively used? I suspect that will be the case (if RT becomes a thing expect it to want 21xx and above). Perhaps RT titles will work with the 20x0 series, who knows.

The whole idea of getting 4k@60Hz (and higher) on a console is almost unthinkable. Since AMD appears to have the contract for such things, and the 5700XT can't do it, getting even more appears difficult.

zen2 chiplet: 80mm2 (assume 402 for 4 cores/1CCX). 5700XT: 250mm2 this gives us 300mm2 that doesn't even do 4k@60Hz (but does get close, perhaps with "console optimization" it will be enough). But RTX spends upwards of 25% of the area on RT, so that would take us to 350mm2 (for barely functional 4k@60Hz or raytracing, but not both at the same time). At the massive cost of a 350mm2 7nm chip.

Console economics could traditionally get away with a massive launch chip, often with fairly high (but not too high) launch price and then shrinking the chip into an affordable system. Don't expect to shrink 7nm in the next few years (although I'd expect it to launch on some cheaper EUV 7nm).

Oddly enough, I have great hopes for raytracing. Just not in the AAA+++ titles that control console economics. Look at the existing raytracing titles: the only one that sports an obvious difference is Quake2. I'd expect the titles you will really want to have RT available for will be Indie Unity titles (haven't heard if/when Unity will support RT, so perhaps some similar engine). Having "perfect lighting" "just work" will be a godsend for small developers, not sure if the big boys will be willing to give up their highly optimized engines that will likely give better results (on the other hand, it might be driven by those same big boy's bosses, who want to brutally slash headcount and RT appears the means. Don't count on that going to plan).

  • 8 months ago
  • 1 point

Do you know anything about AMD's ray tracing? I heard that it doesn't use RT and tenser cores and doesn't take as much of a performance hit to use but that could all be sales hype. I also heard that AMD and NVIDIA's ray tracing are incompatible so Nvidia can't use AMD's ray tracing and vise versa so if consoles use AMD then I assume most developers will use AMD's ray tracing because consoles pay well and by extension the game engines will add ray tracing support . isn't the 5700xt Navi 10 it's like a half die of Navi 20 or something(sorry I don't know a lot about architectures) I here Moore's law is dead talk about if you shrunk the 20 series down to 7nm it's still like 50% bigger the 5700xt?

  • 8 months ago
  • 1 point

I simply don't expect "something for nothing" by somehow managing to get RT without either new circuits nor using existing computational units without significant delay. Vega might have been able to do something like that, but only because it had far more compute capacity than needed for current gaming needs (and was limited by insufficient pixel pipeline circuitry). With Navi fixing that, I don't expect them to have "excess compute power" simply lying around.

Navi 10: 251mm2 TU106 (2070/2060 Super/2060): 454mm2 TU104 (2070 Super/2080/2080 Super): 545mm2

For the first time in a long, long, time it (since Polaris?, before?) it seems AMD is punching above its weight. And didn't require any fancy memory systems that nvidia wasn't using (at the consumer level).

[comment deleted]

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